Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The US-Iran ceasefire has so far held, but markets are pricing in near-certainty rather than certainty. The key comparison is with earlier short-lived truces in the region: headlines can push odds to extremes when shooting stops, yet the real test is whether both sides continue to observe the terms once talks resume and deadlines approach. Reuters noted after the April deal that the ceasefire was narrow, temporary, and dependent on ongoing negotiations, while market commentators highlighted that the risk premium only falls if attacks on Iranian soil and reprisals both stay absent.

For traders, the main catalysts are official statements from Washington and Tehran, any confirmation of resumed strikes, and the status of talks that were pushed into diplomacy rather than settled militarily. Reuters’ reporting on the ceasefire stressed that “safe passage” through the Strait of Hormuz and the pause in direct strikes were core conditions, so any deterioration in shipping, energy infrastructure, or regional air activity would matter quickly. The risk is not just a fresh confrontation, but an officially confirmed kinetic action on Iranian soil, which would settle this market to No if confirmed within the required window. With crowd-implied probability already at 100% Yes, the market is effectively asking whether there is any sign of a breach before the listed expiry date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.