Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026?

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Market context

Jerome Powell has already stepped down as Federal Reserve Chair, with his departure effective by 15 May 2026 and the market’s end date running well beyond that point. On the face of it, that makes the outcome straightforward: if the contract is exactly as described, Powell has vacated the chairmanship and the event should resolve Yes. The only remaining wrinkle would be a documentation or settlement issue over the precise effective date, not the underlying fact of his exit.

The relevant comparison is the normal Fed transition process, where a chair can leave the post while remaining a governor until the end of a separate board term. Powell’s 2022 reappointment had him due to stay chair through 15 May 2026, which is the date now reported for his handover. That matters because these contracts distinguish between the chair role and service on the Board of Governors; a continued governor seat would not prevent a Yes if the chair post has been vacated.

The main catalysts traders would monitor are the official Federal Reserve announcement, the Senate confirmation process for the successor, and the exact start date of the new chair. Brookings reported on 22 May that Kevin Warsh had been confirmed to succeed Powell as chair after his term ended on 15 May, which is consistent with a completed transition. If any source conflict emerged, the decisive issue would be whether Powell actually stopped holding the chair title by the deadline, not whether a replacement was named in advance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.