What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Market context

The Trump administration's approach to Iran's nuclear programme will determine whether the United States accepts Tehran's continued uranium enrichment by the end of May 2026. Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and imposed maximum pressure sanctions; his second term began in January 2025 with hardline advisers including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Iran has since expanded enrichment to 60% purity, closer to weapons-grade levels, whilst maintaining it pursues only civilian nuclear capability. Any agreement permitting continued enrichment—whether capped at specific levels, subject to inspections, or unrestricted—would constitute a "Yes" resolution.

Historical precedent suggests such an outcome remains unlikely but not implausible. The original JCPOA permitted enrichment up to 3.65% under strict International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, representing the only recent framework where the US accepted Iranian enrichment. Negotiations under Biden saw no breakthrough despite indirect talks; Trump's first term saw no agreement either. The 33% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Trump might pursue a "Trump deal" with different terms, or whether escalating tensions could force diplomatic recourse.

Traders should monitor announcements from the State Department and any direct US-Iran diplomatic channels, particularly following developments in regional conflicts affecting negotiating leverage. The IAEA's quarterly reports on Iranian enrichment activities will signal whether technical progress narrows or widens the negotiating gap. Congressional pressure and sanctions policy shifts will also shape whether administration officials view engagement as viable before the May 2026 deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.