Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate must clear a reconciliation package before the end of the settlement window, and the main obstacle is time rather than policy design. Congress has already moved through the budget-resolution stage: the Senate passed its blueprint on 23 April, the House followed on 29 April, and committees then had until 15 May to file legislative text. That matters because reconciliation is one of the few routes that avoids a filibuster, so once a bill reaches the floor it can pass with a simple majority if Republicans stay aligned.

Comparable cases show how quickly reconciliation can still collapse when the calendar tightens. The House and Senate typically need agreement on both the substance and the score, and any delay in committee mark-ups, scoring by the Congressional Budget Office, or House-Senate differences can push final action past a stated target. The current market price of 0% Yes reflects that a formal Senate vote has not yet happened and that the window is now very short.

The next catalysts are procedural rather than rhetorical. Ballotpedia reported on 7 May that Senate committees had released a roughly $72 billion package, with Trump wanting approval before 1 June and leadership targeting final legislation by then; the National Association of Counties said the committees’ texts were due by 15 May and that the bill would still need floor time afterwards. Traders should watch for a Senate floor schedule, a combined leadership agreement on the DHS/ICE/CBP funding details, and any sign that House and Senate versions are still being reconciled.

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Methodology

This page reviews Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.