# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate views during its first 24 hours of availability, with the market settling based on which bracket the view count falls into by the deadline of 30 June 2026. The creator's upload schedule and audience engagement patterns will determine whether the market resolves to the lowest bracket or a higher range.

MrBeast's recent video performance provides the clearest benchmark for interpreting the 18% probability assigned to the highest brackets. His uploads consistently achieve 50–150 million views within 24 hours, with several videos exceeding 200 million in that window. The "Squid Game" recreation video (November 2021) reached approximately 304 million views in 24 hours, whilst more recent uploads have typically settled between 80–120 million. The current probability suggests traders expect the next video to underperform this historical range, potentially reflecting either a gap in his upload schedule or anticipation of lower-than-typical engagement.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's announcement patterns and any scheduling delays, as the market resolves to the lowest bracket if no video posts by the deadline. Recent content cycles show uploads occurring at irregular intervals, sometimes spanning several weeks between releases. Any public statements regarding production timelines, collaborations, or platform changes could shift expectations around both upload likelihood and first-day performance. YouTube's algorithm and recommendation system remain a material factor; changes to platform features or shifts in viewer behaviour during the settlement window could affect initial view velocity independent of content quality.

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.