"The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

"The Breadwinner," an animated feature from Cartoon Saloon, is scheduled for domestic release on 29 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance to be measured across the three-day period through 31 May. The film represents the studio's fourth feature-length theatrical release following "The Secret of Kells" (2009), "Song of the Sea" (2014), and "Wolfwalkers" (2020). Cartoon Saloon has established itself within the independent animation space, though none of its prior releases achieved mainstream blockbuster status domestically.

Historical context matters considerably here. "Wolfwalkers" opened to approximately $3.3 million domestically in October 2020, whilst "Song of the Sea" grossed roughly $700,000 across its opening weekend in April 2015. Both films found stronger international reception than domestic performance. The studio's work typically appeals to critics and festival audiences rather than generating broad family-film appeal comparable to major studio animated releases. Without significant marketing expansion or franchise recognition, Cartoon Saloon's domestic opening weekends have consistently underperformed relative to mainstream animated competition.

Traders should monitor pre-release marketing spend and theatre count allocation, which typically signal distributor confidence. Critical reception from early festival screenings—should the film premiere at major festivals before May—would provide directional signals. The May 29 release date positions the film against potential competition from other releases and the Memorial Day weekend context, which historically drives higher footfall but also concentrates competition.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.