NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic primary in New York’s 13th congressional district is the contest that will decide who carries the party banner for the Bronx and Upper Manhattan seat in 2026. The market’s 63% yes probability points to an incumbent-style advantage for Adriano Espaillat, but the live pricing also shows a real challenge from Darializa Avila Chevalier, who is currently trading close behind on Polymarket[1][3]. Historical reading here matters: in primaries with a sitting member and a visible insurgent, the favourite usually stays ahead unless late endorsements, turnout shocks or an error in local organisation shift the race quickly[1][3].

The main catalysts are the final stretch of campaigning, any late endorsements, and whether the opposition can close the gap in a low-turnout June primary. Ballotpedia lists Espaillat, Avila Chevalier, Theo Chino-Tavarez and Oscar Romero on the ballot, and the NYC Board of Elections primary contest list confirms the district is set for 23 June[3][5]. Local coverage from abc7NY describes the race as one of the district’s most contentious, underlining that traders are not just watching name recognition but whether field effort and coalition politics hold up under pressure[6]. The settlement rule also means the key outcome is the Democratic nominee as certified by official Democratic sources, not any later replacement before November[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.