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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

How the sports market is pricing "Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

SpaceX 92% xAI 26% Anthropic 7% OpenAI 1% Volume: $5.2M Liquidity: $789K Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
92% 8% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
92% 8% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
SpaceX92%
xAI26%
Anthropic7%
OpenAI1%
ByteDance0%
Stripe0%
Databricks0%
SHEIN0%
Waymo0%
Revolut0%
Discord0%
Perplexity AI0%
Kraken0%
Other0%
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Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 92% probability to largest ipo by market cap in 2026?. This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve …

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
and

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