Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Global temperatures in 2026 are tracking to remain near record levels, with the World Meteorological Organization forecasting an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record [1]. Historical data from Berkeley Earth suggests the most probable outcome is that 2026 ranks as the fourth warmest year since 1850, assigning a 51% probability to that specific rank while noting the likelihood of record-breaking warmth is low [2]. This aligns with the current 32% crowd-implied probability for 2026 ranking in the top three, as natural oceanic cooling patterns have recently begun to temper the intensity seen in previous years [2].

Traders should monitor monthly global climate reports from NOAA and the EU Climate Service, which have already confirmed January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest months on record for those periods [3][9]. The critical catalyst will be the release of the full-year Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, expected late in the settlement window, which will definitively place 2026 against the 1850 baseline [2]. While May 2026 already registered as the second-highest temperature in the 177-year record, the subsequent months must sustain this anomaly to push the annual average into the top three [8]. Any deviation toward cooler oceanic conditions in the second half of the year would likely confirm the fourth-place projection rather than the top-three outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.