Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup match between Egypt and IR Iran kicks off at Lumen Field in Seattle on 26 June 2026, with both nations unbeaten in their opening two Group G fixtures and poised to secure advancement to the round of 32[1][8]. The market currently prices an exact 2–2 draw at 16% YES, a figure that mirrors historical tendencies where these defensively resilient sides have frequently produced high-scoring stalemates against shared opponents like New Zealand[2][6]. In comparable World Cup encounters involving teams with similar tactical profiles, exact 2–2 outcomes have resolved in roughly 12–18% of matches, suggesting the current probability is neither inflated nor deflated but grounded in realistic form patterns[2].

Traders should monitor final line-up announcements for key absences, particularly Egypt’s attacking edge versus Iran’s legendary defensive structure, as any shift in personnel could drastically alter goal expectations[7]. The match referee, Szymon Marciniak, has a known tendency to allow play to flow, which may increase the likelihood of stoppage-time goals and push the score beyond 2–2[1][5]. Recent reports confirm both teams are fit and ready, but any late injury news from the squad camps—especially regarding Egypt’s clinical forwards or Iran’s midfield anchors—will be the primary catalyst for probability movement[1][2]. Watch for pre-match press conferences scheduled within the next six hours, as they often reveal tactical adjustments that directly impact exact-score outcomes[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.