France vs. Senegal - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

France and Senegal will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 3:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A 6% implied probability suggests traders view an exact-score outcome as unlikely, reflecting the inherent difficulty of predicting precise match results rather than binary win/loss outcomes.

Exact-score markets typically settle on outcomes between 0–3 goals per side, with 1–0, 2–1, and 1–1 draws accounting for the plurality of historical World Cup group-stage matches. France's recent tournament record shows defensive solidity under their coaching setup, whilst Senegal's 2022 World Cup campaign demonstrated their capacity to compete against stronger sides, though they conceded multiple goals in knockout stages. The current 6% probability reflects base rates for any single scoreline rather than fundamental weakness in either team's likelihood of reaching this fixture.

Key variables include squad availability in the months preceding the tournament, particularly any injuries to France's attacking depth or Senegal's defensive personnel. Coaching decisions and tactical adjustments announced closer to June will influence expected goal distribution. France's qualification campaign and Senegal's performance in African Cup of Nations qualifying (scheduled through early 2026) will provide updated form signals. Traders should monitor official team news releases and fixture scheduling changes, as any postponement would extend the settlement window beyond the current 19:00 UTC deadline on 16 June.

Methodology

We track France vs. Senegal - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.