SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

SpaceX’s twelfth Starship test flight has already been scheduled and attempted, with the company’s own launch page saying the 90-minute window opened on Thursday, 21 May, and the first attempt being scrubbed after weather and ground system issues. That matters for pricing because the programme is no longer a notional concept: Starship has flown 11 times, including several recent Block 2 flights and a successful flight 11 in October 2025, so the baseline chance of a launch is far higher than an implied 0% would suggest. Comparable cases show SpaceX typically turns around Starship attempts after a short delay once hardware and range issues are resolved, rather than abandoning a mission entirely.

The main variables are the same ones that decided the first attempt: pad readiness, propellant loading, and weather in the launch window. SpaceX’s page for flight 12 signalled the launch window and webcast in advance, while live coverage from Spaceflight Now said the company’s own favourability call had slipped from roughly 55% early in the day to about 45% by the time of the scrub. Traders should watch for a revised launch date from SpaceX, FAA or FCC licence updates, and any further pad inspections or tanking rehearsals at Starbase. If the hardware issue is minor, the next window could open quickly; if it is tied to the new launch pad or ground systems, the schedule can move by days rather than hours.

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Methodology

This page reviews SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.