SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test, using Booster 20 and Ship 40, was cleanly aborted at T‑0 on 16 July 2026 just before liftoff, with a recycled attempt now targeted for 17 July 2026[3]. The 0% crowd-implied YES probability reflects that the event has not yet occurred; in prediction markets, a “success” outcome only resolves after the flight completes its planned profile, so pre‑flight status naturally carries zero probability until the test is live[3].

Historically, early Starship test flights have seen multiple scrubbed attempts before a successful integrated flight, with FT‑3 and FT‑4 each requiring several re‑targets after T‑0 aborts or engine anomalies before achieving their objectives[3]. This pattern suggests that a single aborted attempt does not indicate a systemic failure, and markets often remain at 0% until the vehicle actually lifts off and executes its mission, making the current probability consistent with prior test‑flight precedents.

Traders should watch for SpaceX’s official launch confirmation, the opening of the 90‑minute window at 10:45 PM UTC on 17 July, and any range‑status updates from Starbase, Texas[1][3]. Key dependencies include final vehicle inspections after the 10 July static fire, FAA clearance status, and whether Ship 40 completes its hot‑fire checks before rollout[4][11]. A successful lift‑off and completion of the planned suborbital trajectory, including the first carriage of 20 V3 Starlink satellites with extended solar arrays and laser links, would be the catalyst for the market to move from 0%[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.