2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills is now at the point where the cut picture is being set by the leaderboard rather than pre-tournament expectations. The championship uses a 36-hole cut to the top 60 players and ties, and by Friday night the line had settled at 4 over, with 72 players through and 84 eliminated; DataGolf had been pointing to that number with a very high likelihood even before it was confirmed.[2][7]

That makes the market’s 0% YES price easier to read as a settlement artefact than a view on player quality: once a golfer has already missed the cut, the chance of a YES is gone, and if the named entrant was still hovering near the line, the weekend set-up at Shinnecock has historically rewarded avoiding big numbers rather than chasing low scores. The site has hosted multiple U.S. Opens, and its reputation for firm, exacting conditions tends to compress the number of genuine comeback paths once the first two rounds are complete.[4][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are the official second-round scoreboard, any late scoring corrections, and whether the player in question is still inside the top 60 and ties when the cut is finalised. The tournament is scheduled to run through 21 June, so there is little room for ambiguity if a player has not already advanced, and the official U.S. Open channels remain the cleanest source for cut status and any schedule changes.[5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.