Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 21.5 | 57% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 53% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 Winner | 44% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 Winner | 43% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 43% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx | 41% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 34% |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 75% YES probability for Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Alexander Blockx in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van As…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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