Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Florent Bax and Chris Rodesch are in Wimbledon men’s qualifying, a best-of-three grass-court match that has already been priced very heavily towards Rodesch, with Flashscore listing him around -714 and Bax around +450 before the scheduled start. Wimbledon’s qualifying order of play also shows the pairing on the opening day of the qualifying event, which makes the current market sensitive to whether the match was completed as planned or affected by schedule movement on the outside courts.[1][2]

For a 0% YES price, the key historical comparison is not the players’ raw ranking alone but how often qualifying matches at Wimbledon are completed on the same day versus being interrupted by weather or court delays. Because the market settles 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or drifts more than seven days without a winner, traders usually treat a listed start time as a necessary but not sufficient condition: the outcome still depends on the match actually getting underway and finishing within the settlement window.[2][5]

The main catalysts are the official order of play, any court reassignments, and live score services confirming whether the match began and whether either player advanced. Third-party listings have shown differing start times, from 11:00AM ET on Wimbledon’s schedule to later ET conversions on sportsbook and score sites, so the most important dependency is the final in-event status rather than the original listing time.[2][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Florent Bax vs Chris Rodesch across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.