Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 21.5 | 56% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 51% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 37% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 56% YES probability for Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga. This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavi…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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