Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger match between Aleksandar Vukic and Nicolas Arseneault, originally set for 15 July 2026, remains the sole determinant for this prediction market, with Vukic’s advancement triggering a YES resolution. Despite the match date having passed, the 100% YES crowd-implied probability reflects overwhelming market confidence in Vukic’s superiority, aligning with pre-match odds that priced him at 1.12–1.14 against Arseneault’s 4.65–4.80 range[2][3].

Historically, such extreme probabilities in Challenger-level tennis often precede matches where one player holds a clear ranking or form advantage, yet they carry heightened cancellation risk due to weather, injury, or scheduling delays. In comparable Granby events, markets with 95%+ implied probabilities resolved cleanly only when both players completed the match without interruption; any delay beyond seven days or incomplete play without a winner triggers a 50-50 settlement, a clause that remains relevant given the match’s unresolved status as of 16 July[1].

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger Tour updates for confirmation of whether the match was played, postponed, or abandoned, as no result has been publicly recorded yet. Tennis Tonic’s pre-match analysis cited Vukic as the pick to win in two sets, but without post-match verification, the 100% probability remains contingent on formal result confirmation[2]. The settlement window closes 22 July 2026, so any delay announcement from the Granby tournament organisers before that date could materially shift the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.