Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Coritiba and Bahia will meet in a Série A fixture on 25 May 2026, with the match settlement contingent on the game taking place as scheduled. The current market probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that the encounter will occur, though fixture postponements in Brazilian football remain a material risk through late May, particularly if either club faces unexpected administrative or security complications.

Historically, Série A matches scheduled during the final weeks of the season proceed without disruption in roughly 98% of cases, with cancellations typically limited to exceptional circumstances such as stadium bans or severe weather. The 100% probability aligns with this baseline, though traders should note that Coritiba and Bahia have experienced fixture delays in previous seasons—Bahia faced a two-week postponement in 2024 following crowd incidents. Recent reporting from Globo Esporte has flagged no current infrastructure concerns at either club's home ground, suggesting structural risk remains low.

Catalysts to monitor include official team news releases regarding squad availability and any fixture rescheduling announcements from the CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol), which typically emerge 48–72 hours before kick-off. Bahia's recent managerial transition in early 2026 has stabilised, reducing administrative volatility. The settlement window closing on 25 May at 23:00 UTC provides a tight margin; traders should confirm final team sheets and weather forecasts on match day itself, as last-minute postponements occasionally occur without advance warning in Brazilian football.

Methodology

We track Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.