Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 88% |
| O/U 37.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 83% |
| O/U 39.5 | 82% |
| Spread -0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 41.5 | 76% |
| SMU O/U 23.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 74% |
| O/U 43.5 | 72% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 68% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| O/U 45.5 | 66% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| SMU O/U 26.5 | 64% |
| Spread -5.5 | 63% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 63% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 47.5 | 62% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| O/U 49.5 | 57% |
| SMU O/U 29.5 | 57% |
| SMU 2H O/U 12.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -8.5 | 53% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Virginia O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| SMU 1H O/U 14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -9.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 51.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Virginia O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| SMU Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| SMU 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| SMU 2H O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 46% |
| Virginia 2H O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| SMU 2H O/U 16.5 | 46% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 46% |
| O/U 53.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 45% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| SMU O/U 32.5 | 45% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 44% |
| Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| Spread -13.5 | 42% |
| Virginia 1H O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 41% |
| Virginia O/U 2.5 | 41% |
| SMU O/U 3.5 | 41% |
| O/U 55.5 | 40% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Virginia O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 40% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| Spread -14.5 | 38% |
| Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| O/U 57.5 | 36% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| SMU O/U 35.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 33% |
| Spread -17.5 | 31% |
| O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| O/U 61.5 | 28% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| 1H Moneyline | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Virginia vs. SMU | 24% |
| Spread -0.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 24% |
| O/U 63.5 | 23% |
| Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| O/U 65.5 | 21% |
| Spread -3.5 | 17% |
| O/U 67.5 | 17% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 17% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| O/U 69.5 | 12% |
| O/U 71.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -8.5 | 9% |
| O/U 73.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| O/U 75.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 3% |
Market context
Virginia vs. SMU — current market-implied probability: 88%. In the upcoming college football game between Virginia and SMU, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Virginia" if Virginia win the game. This market will resolve to "SM…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Virginia vs. SMU. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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