Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Henan FC | 100% |
| Shandong Taishan FC | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
Shandong Taishan FC face Henan FC in the Chinese Super League, and the market’s 0% YES pricing leaves little room for any outcome outside a very narrow script. Historical head-to-head records can be useful here, but they are not a clean guide on their own: FootyStats’ H2H page shows the fixture as one with a long-running data trail and an implied 0% figure, which underlines how strongly past results and model assumptions can compress perceived upset chances in this pairing.[1]
For traders, the main watchpoints are pre-match team news and any late squad changes, because those are the catalysts most likely to move a market that is already priced at the floor. In practical terms, the biggest dependencies are whether either side rests first-choice defenders or forwards, whether there is a coaching or tactical change before kick-off, and whether recent scheduling has left one team materially more fatigued than the other; those factors tend to matter more than broad league context in a match that is already being treated as highly one-sided.[1]
Sources: 1
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $167K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Shandong Taishan FC vs. Henan FC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Shandong Taishan FC vs. Henan FC on Sport Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →