Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Levante UD O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| CF Villarreal C 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score | 60% |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% |
| CF Villarreal C 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| CF Villarreal C 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Levante UD O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Levante UD (-2.5) | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 33% |
| CF Villarreal C (-1.5) | 32% |
| Levante UD O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 26% |
| Levante UD (-1.5) | 25% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| CF Villarreal C 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| CF Villarreal C (-2.5) | 11% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 92% YES probability for CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - More Markets. More markets for the Club Friendlies game, scheduled for August 5 at 4:00 AM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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