Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
60% | 40% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
60% | 40% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 60% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 57% |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) | 55% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 38% |
| Map 1 Winner | 32% |
| Map 2 Winner | 23% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
Market context
3DMAX meet MOUZ in a best-of-three quarter-final at the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, with the market’s 32% YES price sitting well below where recent head-to-head results would usually leave MOUZ. The last recorded meetings were both MOUZ wins, including a 2-0 in ESL Pro League Season 22 and an earlier 2-0 at the Perfect World Shanghai Major elimination stage, while another recent BLAST Bounty run saw MOUZ beat FOKUS in two maps to reach this stage.[3][7][10]
That history matters because it points to a fairly stable baseline: MOUZ have tended to close this match-up cleanly, whereas 3DMAX have generally needed long, scrappy series to swing momentum against stronger tier-one opposition.[3][4][9] For a market priced near one-third, the current number is usually read as a statement that 3DMAX are live only if the veto opens up, MOUZ arrive with a weakened line-up, or the event format creates unusual variance rather than because the pairing itself has recently been close.[3][4][9]
The main trader catalysts are roster and scheduling confirmations, especially any late change to the official line-up, stand-in use, or a revised start time that could affect preparation. BLAST’s own playoff listings and match pages have already shown this fixture as a quarter-final slot, so the key dependency is whether it starts on time and with both teams fielding the expected five; if there is a postponement, cancellation, or an unresolved forfeit path, the market’s special settlement rules become more relevant than the competitive form line.[2][10]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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