Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-6.5) vs ARCRED (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs ARCRED (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ARC (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-9.5) vs Just Players (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-12.5) vs Just Players (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-6.5) vs ARCRED (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs ARCRED (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ARCRED (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
Market context
ARCRED meet Just Players in a CCT Europe Series #6 playoff round-of-16 best-of-three, with the market heavily priced towards ARCRED. The live market and third-party match pages both show ARCRED as the clear favourite, but the underlying team data is more mixed: ARCRED have won only two of their last five and are entering after a run of modest results, while Just Players have won one of their last five and sit lower in the rankings[9][3].
The probability needs to be read against a small sample and a format that can swing on vetoes. Bo3.gg’s team notes point to ARCRED having stronger control over opening map choices and a solid Inferno record, but also a recent month without a win, which is a warning sign if the series extends to a third map[1]. Just Players’ baseline numbers are steadier, with a 56% six-month win rate and particularly strong Anubis and Mirage figures, so any clean veto edge could narrow the gap despite the ranking difference[1].
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the match starts on time and whether either side fields an unchanged roster. Current listings show the match as upcoming, but schedule pages and trackers have already updated around other CCT playoff fixtures, so late timing changes or bracket knock-ons remain relevant[4][16]. There is no head-to-head history in the recent data, which leaves recent form, veto leverage and any pre-match roster announcements as the main signals to watch[1][3].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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