Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sport Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Sport Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% Execration | 90% Carstensz |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% Over | 90% Under |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% Over | 90% Under |
Market context
Market consensus: 10% chance of dota 2: execration vs carstensz (bo3) - the international southeast asia closed qualifier playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Execration and Carstensz in the The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially sc…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?
- Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The Internat… on Sport Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Trade on Sport Prediction →