IR Iran vs. Gambia

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Market context

Iran and Gambia are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 29 May 2026, a fixture that sits outside competitive qualification or tournament play. The 100% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, given both nations' FIFA membership and the absence of geopolitical barriers that would prevent fixture completion at this stage of the calendar.

Historical precedent suggests friendly matches between nations of vastly different competitive rankings rarely fail to materialise. Iran, ranked around 20th globally in recent FIFA standings, has maintained consistent participation in international friendlies despite periodic fixture congestion. Gambia, positioned significantly lower in the rankings, has similarly honoured friendly commitments without notable cancellations in recent years. The settlement window extends to 29 May at 12:00 UTC, providing a 24-hour buffer beyond typical kick-off times for European-scheduled fixtures, which reduces the likelihood of last-minute postponements affecting the market outcome.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly regarding injury withdrawals or late call-ups that might influence team composition. Iran's coaching staff and Gambia's technical setup typically confirm friendly rosters 7–10 days before matches. Venue confirmation remains a standard dependency; whilst Iran typically hosts at Azadi Stadium in Tehran or neutral grounds, Gambia's limited domestic infrastructure occasionally necessitates away venues. Any diplomatic tensions or travel restrictions affecting either nation would represent the primary catalyst for fixture disruption, though such scenarios remain statistically improbable for a non-competitive friendly.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.