Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 97% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 90% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 77% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 53% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adil Boulbina: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cédric Itten: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Luca Zidane: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Melvin Mastil: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Adil Boulbina: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Adil Boulbina: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Mohamed El Amine Amoura: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Noah Okafor: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Amine Gouiri: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Anis Hadj Moussa: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 1+ shots | 9% |
| Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Amine Gouiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Fassnacht: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Fares Chaïbi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ibrahim Maza: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadhir Benbouali: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Riyad Mahrez: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 knockout match between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for 11:00 PM ET on July 2 in Vancouver. Switzerland, the quiet group winners generating minimal buzz, enter as slight favourites to edge past Algeria, with bookmakers pricing them at -103 on the moneyline and -205 to advance to the Round of 16[1][5].
Historically, this 50% crowd-implied probability mirrors the script of Algeria’s final group-stage clash with Austria, where two evenly matched sides displayed a massive disparity in shot quality despite a tight scoreline[4]. Comparable knockout games featuring possession-heavy teams like Switzerland against defensively aggressive opponents often produce low-scoring, high-tension affairs, with the Under 2.5 goals line heavily favoured at -143[1][3].
Traders should monitor the confirmed lineups for Breel Embolo, the Swiss forward with the shortest odds for an anytime goal at +155, and Algeria’s Mohamed Amoura, priced at +290[3]. Key dependencies include Switzerland’s reliance on through balls against Algeria’s aggressive defensive stance, a dynamic that could lead to a fast-break goal for the Swiss or a long-range strike from Algerian midfielder Manzambi[2][4]. No key absences have been reported, but any late changes to the starting XI could shift the momentum significantly before the settlement window closes on 3 July 2026[2].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Switzerland vs. Algeria - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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