England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," which typically captures the majority of football matches given the wide range of possible scorelines.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group fixtures rarely exceed 10–12% implied probability for any single outcome, even when favourites face weaker opposition. England's 3–0 defeat of Croatia in their last competitive meeting (UEFA Nations League, September 2018) sits outside the typical distribution of group-stage results. More recent comparable fixtures—such as England's 2–1 win over Germany at Euro 2020 or their 1–0 victory over Denmark in the same tournament—illustrate how closely matched sides tend to produce narrow margins. The 9% crowd probability reflects realistic odds for a specific scoreline in a competitive fixture between two nations with overlapping quality.

Traders should monitor England's squad availability ahead of the tournament, particularly injury status of key attacking players. Croatia's recent form in World Cup qualification and any managerial adjustments under current coach Zlatko Dalić will shape their defensive shape. The fixture scheduling—whether England plays first or second in their group—affects tactical approach and rest patterns. Official team sheets released 24 hours before kick-off will provide final confirmation of lineups; any late withdrawals or tactical shifts could shift the distribution of likely scorelines.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.