Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ goals + assists | 100% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ shots | 92% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots | 91% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Manuel Neuer: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ shots on target | 71% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 55% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gastón Olveira: 4+ saves | 51% |
| Manuel Neuer: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Gastón Olveira: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Manuel Neuer: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leon Goretzka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Florian Wirtz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Kai Havertz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gastón Olveira: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leon Goretzka: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ shots on target | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ shots on target | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Maximilian Beier: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nadiem Amiri: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Kai Havertz: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Assan Ouedraogo: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Leroy Sané: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leon Goretzka: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 1+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Felix Nmecha: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Jamie Leweling: 4+ shots on target | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Deniz Undav: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 3+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Nathaniel Brown: 1+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2216%2C18%2020%2C4%2024%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2224%2C18%2028%2C3%2032%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2232%2C18%2036%2C3%2040%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3Cpolygon%20points%3D%2240%2C18%2044%2C4%2048%2C18%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Germany vs. Paraguay - Player Props on Sport Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →