Japan vs. Sweden

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Japan meet Sweden in a World Cup group match in Arlington, with the market implying only a 28% chance of the yes outcome. That is a modest price for a fixture between two teams whose standing in the group can still shift sharply depending on earlier results, and it leaves room for late movement if qualification scenarios become clearer before kick-off. Sky Sports lists the match for the AT&T Stadium venue, while ESPN’s market view already has Japan priced narrowly against Sweden, suggesting traders are balancing Japan’s stronger underlying reputation against Sweden’s better points position in the group so far.[1][4]

Comparable framing matters here: Sweden’s opening group position has been shaped by the Netherlands result, and group-stage pricing often reacts more to margin and qualification maths than to raw team strength.[3][5] Japan have been viewed as the more aggressive, high-press side in pre-match descriptions, but Sweden’s path through the group has been more stable on points, which helps explain why a low crowd-implied probability does not automatically mean the market sees a clear mismatch.[2][4]

The main catalysts are team news, especially any late injury or suspension updates, plus how both sides are positioned after their preceding group fixtures. Reuters-style beat reporting is not available in the supplied results, but ESPN’s live match listing and odds screen show this market can move quickly as line-ups, result dependencies and goal-difference scenarios firm up.[4][7] Traders should watch for official squad announcements, confirmed starters and any changes to the group table that alter whether one side needs a result or can manage the game more conservatively.[3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Japan vs. Sweden across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.