Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
87% | 13% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
87% | 13% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 87% |
| Mexico O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Team to Advance | 63% |
| O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Ecuador O/U 0.5 | 57% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score | 42% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Mexico O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 31% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Ecuador O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 20% |
| Mexico (-1.5) | 18% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 14% |
| Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Mexico O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Ecuador (-1.5) | 8% |
| Mexico (-2.5) | 6% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Mexico (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 4.5 | 5% |
| Ecuador O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 5% |
| Ecuador (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Mexico (-3.5) | 1% |
| Ecuador (-3.5) | 1% |
| Ecuador (-4.5) | 1% |
| Mexico (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Ecuador (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 87% probability to mexico vs. ecuador - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Mexico vs. Ecuador - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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