Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. A 0% crowd probability suggests traders view specific scorelines as unlikely outcomes, though the underlying match remains competitive within its broader tournament context.

Sweden qualified for the 2026 World Cup as Group A winners in European qualifying, finishing ahead of Spain and Italy with 19 points from eight matches. Tunisia secured their place through African qualifying, topping their group with seven wins from ten matches. Historical precedent shows that group-stage matches between nations of differing competitive tiers—Sweden ranked 24th in the latest FIFA standings versus Tunisia at 41st—rarely produce extreme scorelines; the median outcome in comparable fixtures spans 1–0 to 2–1 results. Sweden's recent form includes a 2–0 friendly win over Serbia in March 2024, whilst Tunisia drew 1–1 with Equatorial Guinea in their final qualifier.

Key variables for traders include squad announcements closer to the tournament, particularly regarding Swedish striker availability and Tunisia's defensive personnel. The 0% probability on specific scorelines reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting exact outcomes rather than match direction; even favoured teams produce varied final scores. Monitor official team news releases from the Swedish Football Association and Tunisian Football Federation in the weeks preceding the fixture, as injuries to established starters could shift expected goal-scoring patterns materially.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.