Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup group-stage match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium, is the underlying real-world event framing this prediction market. The game, part of Group D, determines final standings after both teams have played two matches; the US has secured two wins while Türkiye remains winless and eliminated.

Historically, 0% crowd-implied probability for a US halftime lead in such fixtures aligns with cases where a dominant team faces an already-eliminated opponent with no scoring record. In the 2024 World Cup, winless teams like Türkiye (who had zero goals in their first 24 years) rarely led at halftime against top-tier opponents, even when the stronger side played without key stars like Christian Pulisic, who was injured during the US’s 2-0 victory over Australia[3].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, particularly whether the US will field a full-strength squad or rotate players given their knockout-stage qualification, and whether Türkiye’s coach Arda Güler (who scored a bizarre goal in their 2-1 comeback win) will deploy an aggressive formation despite elimination[6]. Recent reports confirm the US advanced to the round of 32 with a clean sheet against Australia, suggesting tactical confidence, but Türkiye’s late winner against the US in a prior match (3-2 final score) indicates potential volatility in early phases[2]. No major absences beyond Pulisic’s injury have been reported, though US coach decisions on squad rotation remain the primary catalyst[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.