Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 91% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 81% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 66% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 61% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 59% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 35% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 15% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match between the United States and Belgium, played on 6 July at 8:00 PM ET in Seattle, with player props focusing on individual performances rather than the final outcome. Historical precedents for this fixture suggest that when a team with a slight talent edge like Belgium faces a home-supported side with strong attacking depth, the market often underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring and the total exceeding 2.5 goals. In comparable World Cup knockout games where defensive units have surrendered high expected goals, the implied probability of 26% for a specific player prop aligns with patterns where high-scoring affairs dilute individual statistical thresholds, making the current price appear conservative given the tactical mismatches.
Traders should monitor pre-match lineup confirmations, particularly the availability of Folarin Balogun for the USA and any updates on Kevin De Bruyne’s fitness for Belgium, as these catalysts directly influence shot volume and scoring opportunities. Recent analysis from Fox Sports highlights that Romelu Lukaku’s propensity for over 1.5 shots on target exploits physical mismatches against the US centre-backs, while Christian Pulisic targets slowing Belgian defenders in space, suggesting that player props tied to these actions may offer value if the game follows the projected high-tempo script. The settlement window ending 7 July 2026 means all prop outcomes are locked to the match result, with no dependency on post-match penalties or extra-time scenarios unless explicitly stated in the market rules.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for United States vs. Belgium - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
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