Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
48% | 52% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
48% | 52% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Taylor Pendrith | 48% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 46% |
| Blades Brown | 43% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 43% |
| Benjamin James | 41% |
| Rico Hoey | 40% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 38% |
| Beau Hossler | 37% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 37% |
| Zach Bauchou | 36% |
| Kevin Yu | 35% |
| Max McGreevy | 34% |
| Taylor Moore | 33% |
| Kevin Roy | 33% |
| Ugo Coussaud | 32% |
| Alejandro Del Rey | 31% |
| Austin Eckroat | 31% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 30% |
| Chan Kim | 28% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 28% |
| Jacob Skov Olesen | 27% |
| Garrick Higgo | 27% |
| Chad Ramey | 25% |
| Thomas Rosenmuller | 25% |
| Lanto Griffin | 25% |
| Brice Garnett | 25% |
| Vince Whaley | 25% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 25% |
| Seamus Power | 24% |
| A.J. Ewart | 24% |
| Joel Dahmen | 23% |
| Manuel Elvira | 22% |
| Carson Young | 21% |
| Romain Langasque | 21% |
| David Skinns | 21% |
| Jorge Campillo | 20% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 20% |
| Paul Waring | 20% |
| Hayden Springer | 20% |
| Tom Vaillant | 19% |
| Todd Clements | 19% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 19% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 18% |
| Adam Hadwin | 18% |
| Danny Willett | 18% |
| Maximilian Steinlechner | 18% |
| Benjamin Silverman | 17% |
| Adam Svensson | 17% |
| Alejandro Tosti | 17% |
| Ricardo Gouveia | 17% |
| Davis Bryant | 17% |
| Dylan Frittelli | 17% |
| Davis Chatfield | 16% |
| Jeremy Paul | 16% |
| Marcus Kinhult | 16% |
| Christo Lamprecht | 16% |
| Dylan Wu | 15% |
| Tyler Duncan | 15% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 15% |
| Nicolai Von Dellingshausen | 15% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 14% |
| Trace Crowe | 14% |
| S.Y. Noh | 14% |
| Aaron Wise | 14% |
| Luke Clanton | 14% |
| Thriston Lawrence | 14% |
| Brandon Stone | 14% |
| David Ravetto | 14% |
| Brandon Robinson-Thompson | 14% |
| Harry Higgs | 14% |
| Paul Peterson | 14% |
| Nick Hardy | 14% |
| Taylor Montgomery | 14% |
| Yuto Katsuragawa | 14% |
| Danny Walker | 14% |
| Cameron Champ | 13% |
| Kensei Hirata | 13% |
| Nick Dunlap | 13% |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 13% |
| Joel Girrbach | 13% |
| Jeffrey Kang | 13% |
| Frederik Schott | 12% |
| Sean Crocker | 12% |
| Ben Martin | 12% |
| Fabian Gomez | 12% |
| Justin Lower | 12% |
| Henry Lebioda | 12% |
| Jens Dantorp | 12% |
| Nacho Elvira | 11% |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 11% |
| John Vanderlaan | 11% |
| Marcel Schneider | 11% |
| Marcus Helligkilde | 11% |
| Peter Malnati | 11% |
| Luke List | 11% |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 9% |
| Jonathan Byrd | 8% |
| Richie Ramsay | 7% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 1% |
| Mark Hubbard | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 48% chance of pga tour: corales puntacana championship top 20. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will res…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: Corales Puntacana Championship Top 20. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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