Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 Winner | 98% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 94% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 Winner | 53% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 36.5 | 41% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: alejandro davidovich fokina vs juan manuel cerundolo. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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