Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: alejandro davidovich fokina vs fabian marozsan. This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Fabian Marozsan in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'A…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Fabian Marozsan. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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