Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Match O/U 21.5 | 75% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Match O/U 22.5 | 71% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Match O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys | 56% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 1 Winner | 56% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 2 Winner | 56% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 39% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 34% |
| Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 34% |
Market context
Yannick Hanfmann and Quentin Halys are set to meet at the Generali Open in Kitzbühel, and the current 56% crowd read for Hanfmann sits close to the head-to-head market, which prices him at about 62.9% to win. That spread suggests a modest Hanfmann edge rather than a strong favourite position, with the matchup viewed as tight enough that game totals could matter as much as the outright winner.[1][2]
The historical frame is a low-margin one: current market data and preview coverage both point to a competitive contest, with one preview explicitly calling Halys the rankings underdog while still expecting a close match. In practical terms, Hanfmann’s price is being supported more by matchup familiarity and slight market preference than by any dominant form gap, so a narrow lead in the odds should not be read as a high-confidence signal.[1][2]
For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirm the match actually starts on schedule, then watch for any late withdrawal, walkover, or weather-related delay that could push it outside the seven-day settlement window and force a 50-50 result. The market is also sensitive to the tournament’s final order of play and any last-minute fitness or coaching-related updates, because a single change in availability would matter more here than broader tour form.[2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Generali Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Quentin Halys. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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