Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 5% |
Market context
Jaume Munar’s second-round meeting with Alexander Blockx at the National Bank Open is a clash between a more established tour regular and a younger player arriving on the back of a sharp ranking surge. Munar is 29 and listed around world No. 43, while Blockx is 21 and around No. 32; they have never met before, which leaves traders leaning heavily on surface form and recent workload rather than any head-to-head record.[1][2][3]
The current 50% crowd price fits a fairly balanced read of the matchup. Munar has already taken a straight-sets first-round win over Rinky Hijikata in Montreal, and reports note he has had an injury-interrupted season, which makes any clean result relevant as a sign of fitness.[10][14] Blockx, meanwhile, arrives with momentum from a strong clay swing, including a run to the Estoril final, but that also raises the question of how quickly he can reset for outdoor hard courts and whether the extra matches have left a physical toll.[10][12]
What to watch next is whether either camp signals a fitness issue, because that is the clearest way the price can move away from a pure coin flip. Munar’s recent losses and interruptions have made his hard-court transition a live issue, while Blockx’s tournament load and the need to adapt after clay are the main dependencies on his side.[10][12] The match is also part of a rain-disrupted event in Montreal, so scheduling slippage is a practical risk; CTV reported organisers were already dealing with difficult conditions earlier in the tournament.[14]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for National Bank Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Blockx. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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