Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Dalibor Svrcina and Gustavo Heide are due to meet in the Poznań Challenger semi-final on clay, with live listings showing the match scheduled for 19 June at 12:30 local time. The market can only resolve on a winner if the match is actually completed; if it is postponed beyond seven days, or never played, it flips to a 50-50 settlement.[2][3][7]

The 0% crowd price implies the market is treating a Svrcina win as effectively off the board, but the historical frame is thin: ATP head-to-head pages exist for the pairing, yet the available public records do not show a meaningful rivalry sample to anchor a strong baseline. In practice, that means traders are leaning more on tournament context and availability than on a deep match-up history, which is common in Challenger-level meetings where pricing can be distorted by incomplete information.[1][8]

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether both players are confirmed to take the court, whether the semi-final stays on the published schedule, and whether any late injury, withdrawal or walkover news appears before first ball. Current live listings also place the match at noon local time rather than the original 7:30am ET reference, so any further scheduling change would matter for settlement as much as performance does.[2][3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.