Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Salzburg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Salzburg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Salzburg (-1.5) | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Salzburg (-2.5) | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Salzburg O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Salzburg O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Salzburg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Salzburg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Salzburg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| TSV Hartberg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Salzburg and TSV Hartberg meet with the market priced as if the “more markets” side has virtually no chance of landing, but the historical baseline is not one of complete stalemate. Salzburg have dominated the matchup overall, winning 18 of the last 22 meetings, while Hartberg have taken none and four have finished level.[1] Even so, the fixture has produced occasional outliers: Salzburg were held 0-0 at home on 1 March 2026, then lost 1-3 to Hartberg in Salzburg on 17 May 2026, which is a reminder that head-to-head strength does not make every related market automatic.[3][10]
For traders, the main catalysts are squad news and whether Salzburg can field a near full-strength XI after their pre-season and summer schedule. Salzburg’s recent results have included a 5-1 win at LASK and friendlies against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Górnik Zabrze, so any rotation, fitness issue or late tactical change could alter how much attacking weight they carry into the match.[4][10] Hartberg’s recent sequence has been mixed, including a 0-0 with Altach and a 1-0 win over GAK, so confirmation of their starting forwards and defensive absences matters if the market is tied to goals, cards or team-specific derivatives.[4] No beat-reporter team sheet has been surfaced in the available results, so the sharpest late read will come from official line-up announcements and any injury updates close to kick-off.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for FC Salzburg vs. TSV Hartberg - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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