Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Ducks and Shanghai Sharks are due to meet again in the CBA play-offs, with the series finely balanced after Shanghai’s recent 99-88 win restored parity. The most recent head-to-head results have been mixed rather than one-sided: Shanghai won 86-67 in January, Beijing replied with an 88-82 result in mid-May, then Shanghai edged the next two meetings 99-88 and 81-66. That pattern suggests a series driven more by match-to-match adjustments and home-court swings than by a clear underlying mismatch, which is why a 0% implied chance on either side is not consistent with the recent scorelines.

The main catalysts are availability and rotation news rather than any broader league trend. Beijing’s response to Shanghai’s defensive pressure and whether it can manufacture enough half-court scoring will matter most, especially if either side has a late injury or minute restriction on a primary ball-handler or interior scorer. The market should also be read against the confirmed play-off schedule, with the teams set to keep meeting within the settlement window unless the fixture is delayed. A recent live-score and preview trail from Flashscore, Sofascore and Scores24 all points to the same basic setup: a short series, close recent margins, and little room for error if either side loses a key contributor.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.