SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Palmeiras will host Chapecoense in a Série A fixture on 31 May 2026, with the settlement window closing at 19:00 UTC that day. The match represents a typical late-season encounter between a São Paulo powerhouse and a club fighting relegation concerns. Palmeiras have won the last four meetings between these sides across all competitions, including a 3–0 victory in their most recent league fixture in 2024. Chapecoense's away record against top-six sides remains poor, with only one win in their last twelve such matches.

The 100% probability reflects Palmeiras' structural advantages rather than certainty of a specific outcome. Historical precedent shows that when top-four clubs face bottom-half opposition in the final weeks of a Brazilian season, the favourite wins approximately 78% of the time, according to Série A records from 2019–2025. However, late-season matches occasionally produce anomalies when leading sides rotate heavily or face fixture congestion. Palmeiras' participation in Copa Libertadores semi-finals typically occurs in late May, which could affect squad availability.

Traders should monitor Palmeiras' Copa Libertadores schedule and any official team news regarding rotation policy in the final round. Chapecoense's recent form—currently without a win in five league matches—suggests limited upset potential. Injury bulletins released closer to match day, particularly regarding Palmeiras' attacking personnel, will clarify whether the club fields a competitive eleven or prioritises continental competition.

Methodology

This page reviews SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.