Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CR Brasil 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 83% |
| Both Teams to Score | 75% |
| CR Brasil O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Ceará SC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ceará SC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ceará SC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| CR Brasil O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ceará SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CR Brasil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Ceará SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| CR Brasil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Ceará SC (-1.5) | 30% |
| CR Brasil O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| CR Brasil (-1.5) | 20% |
| O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| CR Brasil (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 4.5 | 3% |
| Ceará SC (-2.5) | 2% |
| Ceará SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| CR Brasil 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ceará SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ceará SC meet CR Brasil in Brazil Serie B with the market on a first-half result sitting at 30% for **Yes**, which is a fairly modest tag for an outcome that usually needs early pressure, a fast tempo, or a mistake to land. The wider head-to-head has not been one-sided in a way that would make a first-half breakout feel routine: Ceará have won five of the last nine meetings with Criciúma in comparable data, while Ceará and CR Brasil drew 0-0 in April 2026, a reminder that these fixtures can tighten up rather than open quickly.[1][3]
For traders, the main watchpoints are team news and whether either side rotates or starts conservatively. If Ceará arrive with a settled back line and CR Brasil are missing attacking starters, the first-half scoring case weakens; if either coach signals a more aggressive shape, that shifts the profile towards an early goal. Historical pricing also suggests the market has not treated CR Brasil as a clear first-half underdog in this fixture type: when the sides met in August 2024, pre-match implied win probabilities were tightly bunched, with Ceará only narrowly favoured, and the game still finished 2-0 to Ceará.[2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Ceará SC vs. CR Brasil - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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