Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 42.5 | 59% |
| Spread -4.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -6.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Byrum Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah Cobb: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dawson Pendergrass: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keshaun Singleton: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Caden Knighten: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bryson Washington: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Omar Mabson II: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Gavin Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Louis Brown IV: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Drelon Miller: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jeremiah Koger: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chas Nimrod: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DJ Lagway: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Turner: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Christian Neptune: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tony Livingston: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Matthew Klopfenstein: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jadon Porter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jake Johnson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| DeShawn Spencer: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Baylor O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Auburn 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Auburn O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Baylor 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Baylor O/U 30.5 | 48% |
| Baylor O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 42% |
| Spread: Auburn (-7.5) | 41% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| O/U 57.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| Baylor vs. Auburn | 33% |
| Spread -17.5 | 33% |
| Spread -21.5 | 32% |
| Spread -13.5 | 29% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| O/U 54.5 | 27% |
| O/U 66.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 23% |
| O/U 62.5 | 22% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Spread -24.5 | 20% |
| O/U 78.5 | 16% |
| Spread -27.5 | 14% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| O/U 72.5 | 9% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 91% YES probability for Baylor vs. Auburn. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 3:30PM ET: If Baylor wins, the market will resolve to "Baylor". If Auburn wins, the market will resolve to "Auburn". If the game is …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $230K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Baylor vs. Auburn. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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