Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Yunnan Yukun FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger and Yunnan Yukun meet in the Chinese Super League, with the market effectively pricing a clean sweep of *no* on the “more markets” slate at 0% YES. That is consistent with how fragmented ancillary markets often behave before kick-off: without a firm edge on line-ups, match state or discipline, traders tend to leave niche propositions at the floor until team news or in-play dynamics create a clearer trigger. Yunnan have already taken two wins and one draw from the recent head-to-head series in the data available here, including a 3-0 away win in April, while Tianjin won the most recent October 2025 meeting 1-0[1][4][10].
Comparable cases suggest the main read-through is not “certainty of no”, but rather *absence of priced catalysts*. The sides have split their last few meetings, and the April result was one-sided enough to show Yunnan’s ceiling, yet the 1-0 and 1-1 type outcomes in the historical record point to a match that can tighten quickly if the first goal is delayed[4][5][13]. BBC’s fixture data also places Yunnan fourth on 28 points from 20 matches, which supports the view that their baseline is stronger than Tianjin’s, but not so dominant that derivative markets should be assumed dead on arrival[2].
For traders, the main catalysts are late squad announcements, especially any change to Yunnan’s attacking core or Tianjin’s back line, plus the confirmed starting goalkeeper and whether either side rotates after a congested run. Recent previews and results suggest Yunnan have been involved in higher-event games, while Tianjin’s recent form has been more volatile, so any absent finisher or centre-back can materially shift the range of “more markets” outcomes[4][14]. The most relevant watchpoint is whether the confirmed line-ups match the stronger recent form indicators, because that is what can move a 0% YES view away from a placeholder and towards a live market reaction.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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