Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AFC Bournemouth (-2.5) | 95% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| FC Augsburg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| FC Augsburg (-2.5) | 8% |
| FC Augsburg (-1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Augsburg O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Augsburg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
AFC Bournemouth’s friendly with FC Augsburg was played in Austria as part of both clubs’ pre-season camps, and the crowd is already pricing in a near-certain Bournemouth outcome for the wider “more markets” angle because the underlying fixture has now been completed and the market window closes after kick-off. Bournemouth came into the game on the back of a 4-1 win over St. Pauli, while Augsburg had just drawn 1-1 with Saarbrücken, so the form line pointed to a sharper attacking side against a team still settling its summer rhythm.[1][3]
The best historical comparator is not the fixture label itself but the way Bournemouth have handled similar warm-up matches under a new head coach: they have been used to test combinations, give minutes to returning players and press structural ideas rather than simply protect results.[3] Sports Mole’s preview also framed Bournemouth as the stronger squad on paper, with the club still building towards its Premier League opener on 23 August and Augsburg preparing for a DFB-Pokal tie on 22 August, which matters because both sides were unlikely to treat this as a full-strength, high-intensity final rehearsal.[5]
For traders, the key catalysts were team-sheet announcements, any late restings after the Austria camp, and whether Bournemouth kept the same forward group that had been productive in earlier friendlies.[1][3] The match tracker listed Bournemouth with a probable line-up including Đorđe Petrović, Lewis Cook, Alex Scott, Justin Kluivert and Marcus Tavernier, while FotMob noted Augsburg had gone 11 matches without a clean sheet, a useful defensive marker for goal-related markets.[1][9] Social updates from AFC Bournemouth after the match also showed Tavernier scoring in a 4-2 lead state, reinforcing that the game opened up rather than staying cagey.[18]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for AFC Bournemouth vs. FC Augsburg - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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