Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London - Completed match? | 55% |
| The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London | 0% |
| The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London - Who wins the toss? | 0% |
Market context
London Spirit’s meeting with MI London is the sort of derby that has already produced a clear edge in both directions this season. The sides split their 2026 league encounters: London Spirit chased 165 to win by seven wickets at The Oval on 29 July, then MI London responded on 6 August by making 164 for 6 and winning by four wickets at Lord’s. ESPN’s historical scorecard also shows MI London had been dominant across the wider rivalry before this year, with Spirit taking only their second win in the fixture in that earlier Oval chase. [1][8][2]
That makes a **0% YES** price easiest to read as a market anchored to settlement timing rather than a sporting mismatch: the match has already been completed, and any post-match uncertainty is limited to the usual competition rules on wickets, ties, or on-field tiebreaks. In comparable Hundred matches, a tight finish has not prevented resolution, with BBC reporting a tie between these sides earlier in the competition and the result left to the playing conditions. [3][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are the published scoreline, any official correction to the result, and whether the competition has any administrative issue after the match rather than anything tactical on the day. Lord’s fixtures can be influenced by toss and chase conditions, but ESPN’s live and match pages show this contest has already delivered a definitive on-field winner, while recent reports suggest MI London’s batting depth and Spirit’s power-hitting remain the key team strengths to watch next time these sides meet. [6][12][7]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $304K.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London on Sport Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →