Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 99% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-9.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-12.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+12.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: fnatic (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EAC (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-3.5) vs fnatic (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-9.5) vs fnatic (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
Market context
fnatic’s quarter-final against Esport Academy Copenhagen is a straightforward read on paper because the market is leaning entirely to the higher-profile side, and the underlying numbers support that shape. Fnatic have arrived on a strong run, with current reports pointing to a five-match winning streak, a higher level of roster experience, and a better recent record against stronger regional opposition than EAC have managed. EAC, by contrast, are still operating with academy-level continuity and have been taking wins where expected, but have also dropped series to teams such as Sashi, which is the kind of profile that usually keeps a best-of-three price compressed rather than truly competitive.[1][2][7]
For traders, the main catalysts are team-sheet and schedule confirmations rather than a broad market narrative. Both sides appear to have settled line-ups, with fnatic listed around fEAR, jambo, jackasmo, cairne and mazay, while EAC are shown with Fessor, n1Xen, anber, sSen and bekker; any late swap, stand-in, or coach-side adjustment would matter more than usual in a short format.[2][12] Map order is also relevant: fnatic’s recent strength on Inferno and their consistent Nuke bans suggest a veto path that can limit upset routes, whereas EAC’s stronger Cache numbers only matter if the veto opens that lane.[2] The match has been listed for 17:00 UTC, and the settlement rules around a 50-50 outcome if the series is not completed make any delay, walkover or unfinished map worth monitoring closely.[1][3][7]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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