Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCY (-1.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Procyon Gaming (-3.5) vs METANOIA WOLVES (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
METANOIA Wolves have already played Procyon in this cycle, and the wider market had the South American pair close enough that the pre-match pricing was never extreme, even though the crowd has now moved to 0% YES on this listing. Recent form, however, has leaned against METANOIA Wolves: one preview notes a 27% win rate over the past month and four defeats in five, alongside map-specific weakness on Mirage, while Procyon have also come in with a run of losses in regional events rather than a clean surge of their own.[1][5]
The clearest historical frame is that these teams have split little data between them, with their previous meeting in March going to METANOIA Wolves 2-1, and another report listing METANOIA Wolves as having one win from one head-to-head before this BO3.[11][13] That matters because BO3s in this tier often hinge on veto quality rather than raw ranking, and the market should be read through map pool edges: METANOIA Wolves have shown stronger Dust2 numbers but notable bans around Mirage and Cache, while Procyon’s recent results suggest they can be vulnerable if the series reaches a comfort map for the opposition.[1][3]
For traders, the main catalysts are roster and schedule confirmations, since the match was due for 6 August and the market settles at 02:10 UTC on 7 August if no winner is determined, or 50-50 if the match is not played or is delayed beyond seven days.[1] Any late change to the lineup listed for either side, or any tournament rescheduling that pushes the BO3 out of the settlement window, would be more important here than generic form trends.[1][2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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